A while ago I promised some of you to write up on silver miners. A lot of things happened since then, including me getting stuck in the hospital for 2 months, but a promise is a promise. Besides, I figured WSB only pays attention to the stocks, which already moved up significantly in the past few days, before falling off the cliff once we, retards, load up on calls. And as you’ve probably seen, silver has moved up ~8% in a few days (miners – 15% and more). So here we go. submitted by negovany to wallstreetbets [link] [comments] This post is designed to give a start to those of you, who know nothing about this field and just want to dip their toes. In no way, shape or form I poses professional knowledge or formal education on mining, this is purely what I’ve learned speculating stocks. Here you can find my basic write-ups on: - precious metals ETFs - gold miners - jewelry public companies 1. Why invest in silver miners? I’ll give you 5 reasons:
As of 2018, total demand was 32 146 tons of physical silver: https://preview.redd.it/ce1b3cfs2t561.png?width=715&format=png&auto=webp&s=623d38466713f2d66beaa7ed251225dc00556930 Industrial use: 17997 tons (~ 56%); Jewelry: 6611 tons (~ 21%); Coins and bars: 5637 tons (~ 18%); Silverware: 1900 tons (~ 6%). Among industrial demand electronics contributes 7730 tons, while solar was already 2503 tons in 2018. This will only increase. Yep, you’ve probably thought that majority of silver is used on silver spoons that your grandma used to pick up in Target, while cool futuristic kids use lithium in Tesla’s. Turns out, solar panels already use more silver than all of the silverware combined. There’s also another reason to play silver miners right now: it was harder hit by Covid lockdowns. Why so? Because majority of silver production is done in Latin America (in fact, out of 6 biggest producing countries – 4 are in Latin America) and Latin countries on average had much tougher lockdowns, compared to leading gold producers like Australia, China, Russia, etc. 2. How silver is mined? Unlike some other metals, silver is never found on itself. It is always mined in ores that contain either of three large groups of metals: gold, copper, zinc and lead. Ore is then processed and refined to get the end product. Why is this important? Because when you build a model trying to forecast earnings of the company you can not focus on silver prices alone, you have to take every byproduct into consideration. 3. How to determine which mine is a good buy? 3.1. Let’s start by understanding metrics. Your regular EBITDA, EPS or even FCF won’t tell you much about where the miner is going, because a) they do not determine the price of their product;b) they have no direct control over the longevity of the product source. That’s why gold miners came out with their unique metrics by which they evaluate each individual mine and then calculate producer’s average. Those metrics are Cash Cost and All-in Sustaining Costs. Those are non-GAAP metrics and I’m not even sure if they are audited. Cash costs include mine site operating costs such as mining, processing, administration, production taxes and royalties which are not based on sales or taxable income calculations, but are exclusive of amortization, reclamation, capital, development and exploration costs. AISC is, basically, a wider metric introduced later by World Gold Council. It includes every cost of running a mine excluding:• Income tax.• Working capital (except for adjustments to inventory on a sales basis).• All financing charges (including capitalized interest).• Costs related to business combinations, asset acquisitions and asset disposals.• Items needed to normalize earnings, for example impairments on non-current assets and one-time material severance charges. If you want to learn more about quirks and features of those metrics I urge you to read this paper: https://digitalcommons.mtech.edu/mine_eng9/ So take metal futures prices average during quarter, subtract AISC and here goes your mine profit before taxes and royalty payments. 3.2. Silver miners now also use mostly AISC. And calculating silver production they use Ag Eq metrics, which is average ratio of silver to all other byproducts over the quarter. And when they present profits, they also use Ag Eq sold, which again include silver and all byproducts. I would argue, that Ag Eq metrics are also misleading for silver miners. Because when a gold miners produce gold all other byproducts are not that numerous and, what’s more important, far, far cheaper, thus their impact is negligible. Silver is a different story. For example, let's take Caylloma mine, 2019. They produced 45.6kk lb of Zinc, 28.7kk lb of Lead and 0.9 kk oz of silver. In today prices this would be 58kk USD / 27kk USD and 23.4kk USD. As you can see, in fact silver's output for this mine is the smallest. I've even came across arguments, that silver should never be considered a main product, only a byproduct. The problem for you is that you might be watching only silver prices, which, say increase 25% and wonder, why your miner isn’t doing so great, while ignoring that zinc and lead prices dropped and it had a bigger impact on your miner, than rising silver. What you could use instead is a total cost of tonnes milled. Most miners publish this metric. And then model every metal received separately. In fact, most analysts try to model grades of mines, which is basically amount of useful stuff among all shit excavated. But we’re getting really too deep now. 3.3. Another extremely important thing to remember is a life of a mine. See, it can be very different: some mines can live 20 years, some are ending their life cycle. You open prospects of a miner and you search for the guidance on the next year and you see how much metals they plan to produce. Then you check expected life of their assets. If an asset is nearing it’s end, grades usually get lower, which means less profits. Also, investors put a pressure on a miner to replace dying asset, and if nothing is found in time – stock price tends to trade lower than what it’s cash flows might suggest. There are also surprise scenarios like extending the life expectancy of a mine, or finding new deposits. But that’s a gamble. Once a mine is done, it becomes a liability, instead of an asset, because it is put on care and maintenance, which is expensive and lasts years and years. That’s why I prefer junior miners with only few assets: they usually do not baghold liabilities from long-gone projects. And also it’s easier to model them. 3.4. Finally, pay attention to jurisdictions: how stable the local governments are, how corrupt or how focused on ESG standards. Unfortunately, mining is a risky business with bad rep (sometime deserved, sometimes not). That’s why a populist government can always blame miners on some environmental or social damage and close them down or nationalize the mine. Bonus. Let’s look into my biggest silver position as of today: Fortuna Silver Mine (FSM). Reasoning:
Let’s sum it all up. Why invest in a silver miner? Because silver moves more than gold, because it has much more industrial and practical use and it has future upside. How do you find good silver miners? You pick stable jurisdictions, you look into byproducts and estimate if those also fit your outlook and price expectancy and, finally, you check the life expectancy of the mines. Of course, do not forget to look into the books and check the debt ratios. To be fair, I’ll also list considerations why NOT to invest in a silver miner:
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WARFRAME | ABILITY | AUGMENT | DEV NOTES |
---|---|---|---|
Ash | Shuriken | Seeking Shuriken | |
Atlas | Petrify | Ore Gaze | We will not create Rubble. |
Banshee | Silence | Savage Silence | |
Baruuk | Lull | Endless Lullaby | |
Chroma | Elemental Ward | Everlasting Ward | |
Ember | Fire Blast | Healing Flame | |
Equinox | Rest & Rage | Calm & Frenzy | We will use Rest or Rage depending on your Energy Colour. |
Excalibur | Radial Blind | Radiant Finish | |
Frost | Ice Wave | Ice Wave Impede | |
Gara | Spectrorage | Spectrosiphon | |
Garuda | Blood Altar | n/a | |
Gauss | Thermal Sunder | n/a | |
Grendel | Nourish | n/a | Keeps the heal and give Nourish Strike only. |
Harrow | Condemn | Tribunal | |
Hildryn | Pillage | Blazing Pillage | Drains 50 Energy instead of 50 Shield. |
Hydroid | Tempest Barrage | Corroding Barrage | |
Inaros | Desiccation | Desiccation’s Curse | |
Ivara | Quiver | Empowered Quiver | Tap Cloak, Hold Noise. Augment only affects Cloak and Dashwire. |
Khora | Ensnare | n/a | |
Limbo | Banish | Rift Haven | Base Ability Change: Add ‘Cancel ability on Hold’ to let enemies out of Rift. |
Loki | Decoy | Savior Decoy | |
Mag | Pull | Greedy Pull | |
Mesa | Shooting Gallery | Muzzle Flash | |
Mirage | Eclipse | Total Eclipse | Diminished Damage increase to 150% and cap Damage Reduction 75%. (Unmodded value) |
Nekros | Terrify | Creeping Terrify | |
Nezha | Fire Walker | Pyroclastic Flow | |
Nidus | Larva | Larva Burst | Radius reduced to 8m. (Unmodded value) |
Nova | Null Star | Neutron Star | |
Nyx | Mind Control | Mind Freak | |
Oberon | Smite | Smite Infusion | |
Octavia | Resonator | Conductor | |
Protea | Dispensary | n/a | Duration reduced 12 seconds. (Unmodded value) |
Revenant | Reave | Blinding Reave | |
Rhino | Roar | Piercing Roar | Diminished Damage increase 30% (Unmodded value) |
Saryn | Molt | Regen Molt | |
Titania | Spellbind | Spellbound Harvest | |
Trinity | Well Of Life | Pool of Life | Base Ability Buffed - Now does small amount of heal over time over a large range. If you hit the enemy, a % of the damage dealt gets converted into AoE heal. |
Valkyr | Warcry | Eternal War | Attack speed increase reduced 30%. (Unmodded value) |
Vauban | Tesla Nervos | Tesla Bank | |
Volt | Shock | Shock Trooper | |
Wisp | Breach Surge | n/a | |
Wukong | Defy | n/a | Armor capped at 750. (Unmodded value) |
Xaku | Xata’s Whisper | n/a | |
Zephyr | Airburst | n/a | Base Ability Buffed - now has a HOLD or TAP functionality. HOLD to receive original functionality. TAP to suck enemies in a wind Vortex. |
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